Severity of Flu can predict using computer model

National Institutes of Health published that their scientists were able to come up with a computer model that they can predict infection rates of the influenza virus. This model would help to people to beware in flu season in the future. It well known that the extent to which a flu virus spreads in a given year is co-related the maturity of the previous year of the virus. But these scientists came up with the same idea with little strong base.

Initial they analyzed the data on virus genetics and infection rates from 16 flu seasons, from the 2008/2009 back to 1993. They revealed that most important factor, in determining widespread a specific flu virus is based on how much the protein hem agglutinin had mutated from one year to the next. Also weather conditions, school schedules and other factors can be used to predict severity of a flu epidemic, but these are minor factors according to the Public Library of Science’s Currents: Influenza publication.

How much a virus’ hem agglutinin gene had mutated from previous years can be used to calculate how many people were likely to get sick from that virus that year, scientist says. Also the research team plan to use this model to get an idea how flu vaccines should produce each year.

3D model of influenza virus

(Credit: National Institutes of Health)

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